Movies 2/14/03 Dare Devil & Junglebook 2

[SonofaGun]

Alright fellas, you know what to do. Let's talk about this weekend!

Current lines from OLY:

Dare Devil: Over 51 million (-120)
Under (-110)

Jungle Book 2: O/U 17 million (both -115)

Initial thoughts?

Considering that kids haven't had any movies to watch lately, Jungle Book's Over seems nice to me. A nice, notable family flick by Disney.

 

[AC]

i assume these are 4 day totals and not three days?

four days, under 51 million has a very very high EV. three days, under 51 million is still a play.

coupla of years ago, i thought X-Men would do badly. so you might want to fade me.

AC

 

[SonofaGun]

AC, it says it's for a 3-day weekend. Why would you think it's for 4 days? Is it because of President's Day? I don't think you get a day off from work or school for that day. Just another meaningless holiday they put up in the year. I was checking out some movie forums and many people seem to think we'll be getting an extra day on Monday. But it's not Martin Luther King day or Veteran's Day!

 

[SonofaGun]

AC, I just found out that it's probably due to the sneak previews on Thursday, hence, the 4-day weekend many are predicting. Early estimations of theatre counts show that on Thursday, it'll be showing in approx. 2500 theatres! And considering that Oly's props are for the 3 day weekend, I like under 51 as well b/c Thursday can take some chunk of the overall weekend gross. I have been wrong many many times though.

Where are you at Lakerfan?

 

[lakerfan]

Son of a Gun,

The 4 day talk is due to President's day - Monday. Some do get off and movies do better than they would otherwise on Sunday and Monday.

Thursday sneeks won't be counted if they are early in the evening and are not midnight showings, which is my understanding.

DareDevil bet is gone. Likely got hit pretty hard.

OLY and WSEX often will still list 3 day weekend bets as actuals are still available for these days even when 4 day is the way most will look at it. Of course one always must check

.

 

olympic just reposted it:

3 day weekend for daredevil:

OVER 41 mill
UNDER 41 mill

-115 both ways as of now

jungle book - 3 days:

OVER 14.5 mill: +115
UNDER 14.5 mill: -145

 

any consensus on these?.....

 

[SonofaGun]

From my early guessing, I put down just a minor amount on DD Under 51 last night. But damn.... I can't believe it's down to 41 million now. Maybe that was a typo Oly had last night when they meant 51 million O/U for 4 day weekend.

 

[AC]

i would still take under 41 million. must confirm that is fri-sat-sun and not thu sneaks and mon business too.

from what I understand, there are very few advance screenings of this one. so it is a dog. no repeat business + bad word of mouth will lead to declining business.

good luck. I would like to add that I don't bet these props and that I was wrong about X-men in 2000. I have a grudge against the director of x-men so that probably coloured my opinion. the writer of x-men, david hayter, is a stand up guy though.

AC

 

[SonofaGun]

AC, if I may ask, do you work in the biz?

 

[AC]

son of a gun: unfortunately, i have in the past. and might again in the future. for example, last year I worked with Jason Priestley on a Canadian television Xmas special. just before his accident. I believe. Dick Dale played with his band and Dave Foley was the other star/director.

however, that means that you all should pay less attention to me. because I know even less about what is going to happen.

good luck with your wagers.

AC

 

[AC]

also, Monday is a bank holiday. so be very careful when making "weekend" bets this weekend, because the weekend will go to Tuesday. I believe that Nielsen/EDI will count this weekend as a holiday weekend for historical purpose.

AC

 

[lakerfan]

OLY and WSEX bets for this "weekend" are for the three day weekend (FRI-SUN).

 

[LongLiveSport]

AC - You worked on that True Meaning of X-Mas Special? That was great stuff, man. Alot of fun, I enjoyed it immensely. Seriously, that is probably the best X-Mas Special I have ever seen (I suppose that's not saying much, but it was).

 

[raj]

I am passing, but I see best chances for under 41 for daredevil.

 

for those who like UNDER on daredevil - you have company. it opened -115 both ways. it is now:

OVER 41 +140
UNDER 41 -170

 

[AC]

long live sport: yes, I produced the LA part of the shoot. i have never actually seen it because it never aired in the states.

anyone with kids going to see Jungle Book II? not sure what the "want to see" factor is.

AC

 

[AC]

estimates are in with Daredevil at 43.5 million. however, snow storms should drive this number way down when real numbers are released...so if you are holding an under 41 ticket, don't rip it up yet, there is still hope. i think jungle book had just over 11 for the weekend.

 

[SonofaGun]

i'm holding an under 51 million ticket

 

[AC]

there are two estimates floating around for the three day daredevil take right now. one at 41.975 and one at 41.06. I'm buying the latter number and further adjustments may take the real number lower. If you are holding the three day weekend under 41 bet, make sure that they are not counting the thursday night sneaks (i think it was on 2000+) as part of the three day number.

good luck

AC